Deborah Kelland - Market Commentary

July 6th 2009

Signs of Recovery now evident in virtually all market sectors.

There is a consistent pattern in recent REINZ sales statistics showing in Kelland’s more affluent city fringe suburbs a 40% increase in sale numbers. In both the eastern and western areas in which we specialise, sales are well up for the last 6 months when compared to the same period last year. 

In Remuera, Parnell and Orakei for example the total reported sale numbers rose from 284 for the first 6 months of 2008 to 399 sales for the last 6 months in 2009.

There is across the board evidence that sales are strong in most sectors of the market which started with first home buyers stabilising market sentiment under $500,000 and with higher price brackets soon following suit.

The sales statistics now show that same positivity filtering through virtually all markets with the exception of the very top end, above 3 million dollars.
There were just 10 sales reported in this bracket this year compared to 12 last year. Just one of those sales was above 6 million this year compared to 2 last year.  In 2007 there were 28 sales over 3 million dollars in Remuera, Parnell and Orakei neighbourhoods for the same 6 month period.

This drop in sales volumes of between 60-70% shows that the premium housing market still has a way to go to full recovery. However we can confirm we are seeing all the signs that this price bracket is also now active as will be shown in the next 6 months. This will complete a sensible correction in a property market that had clearly run away.

Certainly it is no longer a “punt” to buy with interest rates at an all time low, with current  very reasonable price levels judged by most as unlikely to remain and now a shortage of good property being evidenced.



June 1st 2009

Property Market Showing Signs of Strength.

This last month we experienced great sale numbers primarily driven by the first home buyers strongly re-entering the market.  Of the prime markets that Kellands is engaged in, these buyers are very active in the popular suburbs namely Grey Lynn, Ponsonby and the City suburbs especially with properties under $700,000.  The apartment market is again dominated by people wanting to live in the property rather than rent them out.

This encouragement from the “bottom up” is fueling other markets with good activity and sales driving into the upper brackets. While we are yet to see many sales over 5 million dollars there is keen buyer interest that will certainly result in sales in the next month or two.

My personal view is that smart buyers are taking a long-term view with interest rates at an all time low and a belief that we are off the bottom of the market. While interest rates stay low we will continue to see good buyer interest with the affordability index at very attractive levels.

So it is not surprising that the one aspect that we will find challenging in the short term is a shortage of good property. Properties have sold that may have been sitting for a while and  “new to the market owners” are considering waiting till spring to put their properties on the market “when the garden is looking better”. It never ceases to amaze me how reluctant vendors are to go against the norm and put their properties on the market in winter when there is so little competition. It is certainly what I would recommend to any owner thinking of selling this year. My argument is “why take a gamble in spring” when “you know the score today?” Why compete with many other properties all coming to the market all at the same time and not know what the prices will be doing then.

Today you can act with certainty.



May 4th 2009

Property Market Continues To Look Promising

While there have been suggestions that the market is looking healthier in the past couple of months, with increased numbers at open homes and to even the most casual of observers the sold signs seem to be on the increase but “the proof is in the pudding”.

When I compare the statistics supplied by REINZ it is clear that in most cases sales volumes have increased in comparison to the same period last year. While not all sales are recorded including some very high-end sale prices that are subject to confidentiality clauses, this data does give us some clear information.

The suburbs of Herne Bay, St Mary’s Bay, Freemans Bay, Ponsonby, Grey Lynn & Westmere have shown a significant increase in sales volumes in the months of February and March compared to the same period last year.  We have often observed that these areas often are at the forefront of a changing market. Good results have also been recorded across the most areas. While Remuera, Newmarket & Parnell are not showing an increase, we feel this is partly due to the lack of available listings in these locations.

With good properties still in short supply and interest rates still looking like they will remain low now is the best time to be selling and realising your next dream.



April 1st 2009

Property market moving again from the bottom up.

First home buyers are an exciting addition to this year’s property market. I am confident that all the indicators are there for a steady market this year primarily fuelled with a greater number of sales in the lower and mid brackets.

Buyers and owners are now accepting the new market realities are not as bad as they expected. We are achieving 100% success with all our properties that are marketed with a proper process or campaign and achieving good prices. Many buyers, for the first time, are missing out with keen competition.

We are encouraging people to not worry about what might have been the price, or what the price may be later, but to focus on what today’s price is that enables them to buy and sell in the same market. We call it at Kellands “now real estate” and it is satisfying to see people getting on with their lives.

I think that with this movement the top end of the market will also see more action having been reasonably lack lustre this year. Many properties over three million have not been sold. There have been fewer buyers buying up than there have been buying down, but just in the last three weeks we have seen the numbers increase considerably.  With prices in this upper bracket also correcting, and with stable interest rates in place, I think that buyers will see the great opportunities that exist here to acquire the best of Auckland’s real estate.

When you consider the times that we are in, and how vulnerable all other finance and share assets are, this would have to be the best time to invest in the most stable commodity of all times. 

Property, whether it is your home or investment, provides a stable environment and pride of ownership. It gives you control over your future and destiny.




March 1st 2009

A Ray of Sunshine in Property despite the Doom and Gloom Merchants.

I would not have predicted at the end of last year that there would be such a positive start to our real estate market. Traditionally it is slow in January and whilst this year started no differently with many people staying on holiday to capitalise on the great summer, I sensed there was a difference in buyer’s attitudes.

In February this was realised with fantastic numbers again coming through open homes and to our auctions, with absolutely every property then selling under the hammer at very respectable prices. As you can see Holleigh has certainly capitalised on this buyer confidence for her vendors. I do think that there is a quiet optimism in the buyers with the lower interest rates and this is demonstrated quite dramatically with a number of first home buyers purchasing this month. These young people want attractive well appointed apartments and the best in their price range, but not holding back when they see it, as we have in the Aston Apartments in New North Road currently at under $500,000.

We are also starting to see the Expats coming home as we predicted, now looking for a new life back in New Zealand. Many want our prime coastal real estate for they have the money to buy beachfront and are insisting on the best that their money can buy. They can afford to be quite bullish with the exchange rates now enabling them to purchase extremely well.

I think that this will be an interesting year for small to medium sized businesses which will be able to secure an investment property and their own premises for less than what they are paying in rent. With interest rates so low we are excited about a stunningly refurbished building in Mt Eden which was the original steel joinery manufacturing plant. Meticulously refurbished for entrepreneurial businesses looking for, inspiring spaces they can enjoy the cross pollination of like minded people in business and be in control of their own destiny.owning their own environment from as little as $499,000+ GST.

What ever this year brings, I feel confident that there will be openings for people to invest in real estate at prices that will enable them to prudently improve their property portfolio for the long term.




February 12th 2009

Auction Results:
Well, what a start to 2009’s auctions. I would not have predicted that we would have the unprecedented numbers that have shown up to bid in the last 2 weeks for all of our auctions with every one of them selling under the hammer.

We had one such auction last week on Westmere’s waterfront that captured the interest of 200 groups of people with 100 turning up for the auction and no less than 15 of those people there to actually bid. The property achieved a great result at over $1.7 million. And it just shows that unique property is in demand in any market and this year is no exception.



February 1st 2009

We had an unprecedented number of clients making offers on properties right up and beyond Xmas keen to get their next move in property complete for the New Year and therefore a great result for December sales in our company.

Whilst some of those sales were on behalf of some of our banking clients for quality property in either waterfront apartments and sizable property portfolios, the buyers were very genuine in what they were buying for their own personal use and investment.

This year we still have good numbers of buyers back in the market in most of our affluent suburbs and in particular our clients are seriously persuing a more low key lifestyle and have an interest living nearer the perfect NZ beaches in places like Waiheke Island and the waterfront in Auckland.

I think that New Zealand represents all that is safe and secure and ties in with the worldwide mood for a more simple lifestyle.

It may well be another four to six months before we see whether our Xpats will actually be coming home to live, but reports tell me that there are a significant number especially in the United Kingdom seriously considering this having recently lost their highly paid employment. In the meantime we continue to receive good enquiry from them in all types of property and whilst it is too early to see if they will provide a good underpinning of the property market this year the prospect is definitely there.

Interesting how the December issue of Tatler magazine put New Zealand on the map as a golden opportunity for prime property and in particular lifestyle property opportunities for many of the international acclaimed rich and famous. Whilst this may be somewhat sensationalist in the journalistic approach, I think we can all be proud and comfortable in the property opportunities that we have on our doorstep.



January 29th 2009

There's nothing like a good summer to have New Zealander's postive in contrast to the sentiment experienced in the UK and America.

With interest rates still tracking down here in New Zealand, owners are becoming more comfortable with their real estate investments whereas in the UK no buyers are showing up to open homes and owners are accepting that their homes are unsaleable in the meantime.

Yes, there is a quiet confidence there right now so if you are looking to sell this year I suggest that you do it whilst that strength is there.



January 15th 2009

Coastal prime real estate is still in demand but it is true there is more available now than in a normal year. Some owners are focusing their business interests offshore, others are consolidating their extensive holiday home portfolio and some are buying down for a more simple lifestyle.

So the time is ripe for a plum purchase for an offshore owner, expat or local looking to capitalise on the prime waterfront opportunities in New Zealand.



January 8th 2009

Well with this wonderful summer in full swing how is it affecting the property market?

We had an unprecedented number of clients making offers on properties right up and beyond Xmas keen to get their next move in property complete for the new year. This year we still have good numbers of buyers back in the market and in particular our clients are wanting to permanently live nearer the perfect NZ beach lifestyle in places like Waiheke Island.

Yes as we predicted, a number of clients are wanting to come home and secure property that represents the perfect traditional NZ lifestyle and in amongst the challenges of this world economy I am confident that NZ property will be a winner in this.



December 24th 2008

Well we are all into the Xmas New Year holidays and it is certainly trendy to be a doom and gloom merchant about the coming year.  All that has happened in property this year is people have held back buying or selling thinking that it would get better and when they finally realised that it didn’t, they got on with it later in the year.

Most people sold at prices back to where they were three years ago with some as much as maybe 5 years ago. But one could argue this was necessary correction in a too full on property market anyway. But we are certainly not seeing wholesales panic selling and I think that with interest rates tracking down so dramatically that things may not be nearly as tough as people suggest.

There will be winners and losers in the coming year and those that take a positive approach to whatever their circumstances, will be the heroes.



December 12th 2008

With Xmas fast approaching what is happening in the property world?
It is often a feast or a famine at this time of the year with buyers and owners either wanting to get their property purchases completed or not the slightest bit interested in anything other than Xmas and parties. So what is happening this year?

Well this December we will be working up to the last minute with sales strong as our clients are very keen on getting their property either bought or sold.

I think that most people are not so sure of what is going to be happening next year and so enthusiastic to buy whilst owners are realistic and owners are focused to sell to have the certainty of a sale.



December 5th 2008

Expensive holiday accomodation in demand:
Interesting to hear that expensive holiday homes  on Waiheke Island are in huge demand over this summer months  from overseas families. The numbers are considerably up on last year because they see NZ as being a less expensive and more attractive option that their previous year’s holiday destinations.

Chefs are being flown in and all the trimmings added on top of the $1,000-$3,000 a night accommodation in private homes in prime waterfront locations. I do think that NZ will be a winner in this world wide credit crisis. For we represent all that is good and wholesome and reasonable in a more grass roots approach to life.



November 28th 2008

Auction Success:
Despite the reported poor results in a recent Mega auction in South Auckland our company this week had three auctions on one day and sold 100% of them. They were properties that had great positions in Parnell, Orakei and Freemans Bay and all reflected current values at around 20 % less than their possible price over 12 months ago.

I think that people should not question whether auctions are the way to go it is more about how hard the appointed sales person works on getting that result to ensure that the auction is a success.  Buyers love auctions that are well run for it clearly gives them confidence about the interest and market value of that particular property.


November 21st 2008

Are we at the bottom of the property market right now?
It is anyone’s guess but let's look at what is happening for there are amazing opportunities:
  • We now have prime property up for mortgagee sale.
  • We now have interest rates being slashed. 
  • We now have a lot of our X-pats coming home to live and inject their intelligence, English pounds and American dollars into our housing market.
  • We now have our owners accepting a new realism in the value of their properties –in many cases considerably below what they paid for it.
We  will only know if we are at the bottom of the property market when it moves up again.
But with interest rates now really taking a dive that is historically a sure sign and the opportunities are there right now.



November 13th 2008

So what is happening to those beach property prices?
Has the change in government affected the property market?

Barrack Obama’s new presidency and a change in our government has put a very upbeat spin on New Zealanders property interests. It is as if the tap has been turned on “full Bore”.

Quite amazing really that since Saturday of the elections there are been more than twice the number of buyers going through open homes and as many owners making a last minute decision to put their property on the market before Xmas.

It is too early to call on a definite increase in sale numbers or prices but I expect to see more offers and more properties sold whilst we are accepting John Key’s promise of a brighter future.

We are delighted with our sales of trophy properties in the last month or so with the sale of the penthouse at Princes Wharf at $5,500,000 and also three waterfront properties on Waiheke totalling nearly 18 million in just three weeks. Holleigh Mason, Fiona MacKenzie and Matt Baird worked as a team to contract the penthouse sale‐the most expensive apartment sale in the CBD and Viaduct.

These great sales highlight that New Zealanders still have the wealth to buy substantial property and secondly that prudent buyers are still not gambling on the property market getting worse and are buying right now if the property is what they are looking for.

Sales are down at all coastal locations as they have been in Auckland but absolute waterfront is still holding its own. But there will be some fall out in bare land sales in many of the subdivisions that sprouted up across the country perhaps supplying more than need demands. Unless these are true waterfront sites I think it will be a long time before we see the value of these sites hold up and I would not like to be testing them right now which could show a drop of some 50% off the water.

With our expats coming home from America and The UK surely they want a slice of our coast to come home to? Yes I think that is the case but I think they will be looking for the actual bach rather than the thought of building currently.

So certainly a long term hold if you own coastal land right now but in that long term it will be worth it in the end to have that family life or beach property land investment which given time will hold its own again.


Kellands Real Estate specialise in prime luxury real estate for sale in Auckland, New Zealand